Having played with it some at last session and additional pondering some conclusions I have discovered the following (pertaining more inferance to melee than ranged), assuming the desire at the end of the day is to reduce overall use of multiple attacks.
For 3+ attacks, the ruling actually works well and somewhat nerfs the result.
However it makes 2 attacks more frequent (see points below).
1. Careers that previously didn't have access to attack raises, couldn't do more than a single attack, now have the ability to do the two attacks with a swift attack action. This does mean your enemies can use swift attack also, which helps mitigate it some.
2. Two attacks is typically better than just the one so decision becomes to swift attack or parry.
A. So taking say two average somewhat combat experienced characters with a 40% WS each and they both carry a shield (free parry at +10% WS).
So this results in the attacker having 30% to hit while the defender has 50% to parry (we will assume the defender isnt doing swift attacks, as this gives the smallest hit chance for the attacker).
I'm assuming partial parries counted as hits as well, even though they may result in no damage.
First attack has a 30% chance to land, while a 50% chance to not be parried results in that only being a 15% chance to land.
Second attack has a 15% chance to land. (70% chance first attack missed * ( (30% * 50% chance to not parry second attack) + (15% parry was successful on first attack * 30%) )
Total chance to hit at least once results in 30%. Though doing a single attack would only have a 20% chance to fully land (40% chance to hit but 50% chance of that being parried).
Swift attack wins out (higher skill on the attacker simply makes that better).
Without a defender able to parry it is 51%.
B. Say attacker and defender are average WS at the 30% mark.
First attack has 12% chance to land (20% * 60% not parried)
Second attack has 11.2% chance to land
Making a total result of 23.2% chance to hit (single attack has an 18% chance to hit)
Without defender able to parry it is 36%
C. Lets now assume the attacker is average joe at 30% WS and the defender is a little experienced at 40%.
First attack has a 10% chance to land
Second attack has a 10% chance to land
Total chance of atleast one hit is 20% (single attack has a 15% chance to hit)
Without defender able to parry it is 36%
D. Assuming the reverse of C, so that the attacker has 40% WS and defender 30% WS
First Attack has an 18% chance to land
Second Attack has a 16.2% chance to land
Total chance of atleast one hit is 34.2% (single attack has a 24% chance to hit)
Without defender able to parry it is 51%
Clearly in all cases swift attack is the better option to a single attack, assuming you dont want to parry (whether to parry or not is so variable it's not worth adding to the calculations, though using aim on a single attack will make the single attack option more appealing, assuming a character has a free parry).
Assuming a -20% swift attack penality (simply choses to show some correlation):
Scenario A would result in 20%, Scenario B would result in 11.8%, Scenario C would result in 10%, while scenario D would result in 23.2%
This shows that realy anything below the 40% WS mark the character is better off with a single attack, 40% WS is about even (so a situational choice) so anything likely above the 40% mark swift attack gets better to use.
Conclusion:
If you are trying to reduce the instances of swift attack being used, then I'd sugest either go with some talent for careers that gain the ability to spend raises in attack, thus giving them access to the swift attack option (while using your rules as is), while keeping swift attack not an option for just everyone.
Alternativly increasing the swift attack penality to -20% could also handle the instances of it being used allot by the less skilled.
However if those numbers look ok for trading off a parry, then it is all good (I'm undecided on that factor to be honest).
Side note: Swift Attacks and Ranged
For ranged attacks it's not so much of an issue (your current rule work well for them) as there are limitations inherrant with missile weapons anyway. Those specifically needing talents to reduce reload to a free action, the factor that they are generaly limited to only +3 damage, and that they use up a resource (ammunition) quicker using swift attacks than normal ones.